Full Title: The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle: Connecting the Panics of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007
Author: Kerry Balenthiran (Twitter @17_6YrStockCyc )
Publisher/Date: Harriman House (2013)
List Cost/Pages: $33 Paperback / 156 pages
How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market?
The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone’s investment returns and retirement plans.
This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won’t necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market.
Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle.
Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.
I meet Kerry via Twitter when he saw some of my tweets related to seasonal charts. He was kind enough to send me a copy of his book for review. Kerry provides a detailed description to his 17.6 & 2.2 year cycle … showing past periods as well as future projections. If you are interested in secular cycles this is a great read.