Event: All Fools’ Day
April Fools’ Day dates back to the times of Constantine the Great, the Roman emperor from 306 to 337. Court jesters and fools told the Roman emperor that they could do a better job of running the empire. Constantine, amused, allowed a jester named Kugel to be king for one day. Kugel passed an edict calling for absurdity on that day, and the custom became an annual event known as “Stulti Tota Die” or All Fools’ Day. Since that time, April 1st has been known for practical jokes and hoaxes.
Here is a small list of some famous April Fools hoaxes:
- Pasta Grows on Trees
- The Fastest Pitcher of all Time
- Redefining Pi
- Flying Penguins
- The Taco Liberty Bell
- Drunk Driving on the internet
- Color TV? Try nylon
- The Left-Handed Whopper
- Gmail Motion
- Easter Island Statue Washes Ashore
The questions is … do the futures markets take things seriously heading into All Fools’ Day?
Market Comparision
How do the markets perform leading up to and including April Fools’ Day? The analysis table below breaks down each of the 30+ markets into four separate trading periods. These time frames span 6-days, 4-day, 2-days and the event day itself. The return performance for each time frame is measured against its normal performance during the year to calculate a final over or underperformance return. This metric quantifies, in percentage points, the advantages or disadvantages associated with April Fools’ Day. Markets highlighted with a checkmark or an “x” should be closely monitored for potential strength or weakness heading into the event.
Note: Constantine the Great didn’t really give the court jester Kugel complete power for a day … after all, he wasn’t a fool.
Calendar Breakdown by Events
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Our strategies have not been developed based on knowledge of or with reference to your particular circumstances, such as financial position, goals, risk-reward preferences, tax situation, brokerage arrangement, investment or trading experience, and so forth. Hence no content or model published here constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal financial situation. More