Seasonal Projection: Soybean Meal (SM)
Seasonal charts can’t offer a specific road map to future market moves — they can only provide perspective to past market moves. Hence, the seasonal projection chart below should be used as a historic reference of past trends and turning points, and not for buy/sell recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What are Seasonal Projection charts?
The seasonal projection is a weighting of four historic seasonal averages for Soybean Meal. Specifically, we combine the 5/10/15/20 yearly averages to form a single seasonal line. This seasonal weighted line (shown in blue) is then projected forward 21 calendar days from the outlook run date. Grey circles provide perspective for potential 7/14/21 day return projections. Low and high points over the 21-day period are highlighted in yellow and green respectfully, pointing out potential returns. The final return figure listed on the chart relates the Low to High (L2H) point or High to Low (H2L) point depending upon the Low/High historic order. Each of these return figures are posted at the bottom of the chart and should be used strictly for reference purposes only.
How to use a Seasonal Projection chart
As mentioned above, the Seasonal Projection chart is not to be used for buy/sell recommendations. The true use for the Seasonal Projection chart is as a position sizing tool — indicating when to trade more or less aggressively. If the seasonal projection is bullish or bearish, and this outlook corresponds with your trading system, you might consider trading more aggressively. If however, your system conflicts with the seasonal outlook, you might consider trading more conservatively. The market outlook, shown towards the top of the chart, reflects various return data points compiled into a seasonal projection. Respect the seasonal trends.
When to use a Seasonal Projection chart
The best time to use Seasonal Projection charts is when the current Soybean Meal contract is highly correlated to its 5/10/15/20 yearly seasonal charts. The link below reviews whether Soybean Meal is accurately tracking any of its four separate seasonal time frames. Seasonally Accurate Grain Markets
Seasonal Projection:
Seasonal Overview
Take a look at these seasonal charts to gain additional insight into the seasonal tendencies of Soybean Meal. Click on the links or any of the four charts for greater detail.Step 1: Turning Points
Step 2: Accuracy
Step 3: Projection
Step 4: Sector Review
